The prospects are good for continued real growth in the demand for steel worldwide according to the latest projections by IISI. Apparent Steel Demand is forecast to grow to between 1,040 and 1,053 million tonnes in 2006 from a total of 972 million tonnes in 2004. This is a growth of 4-5% over the two year period.
The strongest growth continues to come from China which should see a 10% increase in steel demand in 2005 and a further 7-10% growth next year. In the rest of the world, Apparent Steel Demand in 2005 will be the same as in 2004. A significant build-up of steel inventories in 2004 has been worked-off this year. In 2006 there should be a renewed increase in Apparent Steel Demand of 20 to 25 million tonnes in the rest of the world and a further increase of 20-30 million tonnes in China.
The forecast for 2006 are given as a range to reflect some uncertainty in the prospects for a pick-up in economic growth which may be adversely impacted by the recent further sharp rises in the price of oil and energy. However, the forecasts confirm the trend of recent years of an increase in steel use in-line with general economic growth and with the fastest growth occurring in the countries with the highest GDP growth such as India and China. Costs of raw materials and energy continue to represent a major challenge for the world steel industry.
Apparent Steel Demand
Table 1: Apparent Steel Demand - 2000 - 2006
Table 2: IISI Apparent Steel Demand Forecast - 2004 - 2006
Table 3: IISI Apparent Steel Demand Forecast
AD
